Deuda externa, crescimento y sostenabilidad

Vol. 24 No. 2 (2004)

Apr-Jun / 2004
Published April 1, 2004

How to Cite

Frenkel, Roberto. 2004. “Deuda Externa, Crescimento Y Sostenabilidad”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 24 (2):203-20.

Deuda externa, crescimento y sostenabilidad

Roberto Frenkel
Investigador titular del Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad - CEDES, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 24 No. 2 (2004), Apr-Jun / 2004, Pages 203-220


The paper presents a model intended to define and discuss the sustainability of external debts in “emergent markets.” The first sustainability condition is the existence of a maximum in the debt-output ratio. With some simple behavior hypotheses it is shown that sustainability depends on the initial debt-exports ratio, the rate of growth of exports and the country-risk premium. An endogenous country-risk premium gives room for multiple equilibrium. The model allows the discussion of vulnerability vis-à-vis financial shocks and the propensity of the economy to jump to unsustainable paths. The first sustainability condition is not a stringent one. Two additional sustainability conditions are added: a positive rate of growth and a minimum in the domestic absorption-output ratio. The discussion of multiple equilibrium, vulnerability and the potential instability of sustainability is then extended.

JEL Classification: F34; F32.

Keywords: Sustainability external debt growth