TY - JOUR AU - Catão, Luis PY - 1992/01/01 Y2 - 2024/03/28 TI - From the Treatise of Probability to the General Theory: the concept of rationality in Keynes JF - Brazilian Journal of Political Economy JA - BJPE VL - 12 IS - 1 SE - DO - 10.1590/0101-31571992-0644 UR - https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/1403 SP - 59-75 AB - <p>The purpose of this paper is to re-assess the role of uncertainty in Keynes’s macroeconom-ics by exploring the concepts of probability, rational belief and rational action, as they ap-pear in the Treatise on Probability. Three main claims are then made. First, there exist sub-stantial links between the conception of human rationality in the Treatise on Probability and that in the General Theory. Secondly, Keynes attributes considerable importance to the ration-al elements involved in the process of investment decision and suggests that they normally lead to macroeconomic stability. Instability is thus explained by a specific institutional shock to an economy, which is already prone to crises due to the imperfect working of certain key markets. From this perspective, the post-Keynesian literature is misleading in blaming uncer-tainty for capitalist instability and unemployment. Thirdly, following Keynes’s hints, I sug-gest that an institutionalist research programme would provide a firm basis to model invest-ment behaviour under uncertainty in a more realistic way than usually done.</p><p><strong>JEL Classification:</strong> B3; B4.</p> ER -