Vol. 15 No. 4 (1995): Oct-Dec / 1995


Vol. 15 No. 4 (1995)

Oct-Dec / 1995
Published October 1, 1995

Article


Populism or budget endogeneity? Discretionary fiscal policy in Argentina
Daniel G. Arce M.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

This paper uses the Fischer equation and Olivera-Tanzi effect to insulate the inflationary endogeneity existing in Argentine public deficit. The outcome is a fiscal policy discretionary measure known as zero inflation budget. Through this measure we examine if the deficits reflects countercyclical policies or populist consumption targets.

 


Brazilian imports of natural gas in the context of Mercosur
Adilson de Oliveira, Márcio Silva de Araujo
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the possibilities of natural gas import from Argentina or Bolivia to Brazil. It is possible to verify the existence of a consumption market that may become the importation of gas attractive. More than a simple trade deal, the construction of a gas duct may help to improve the existence of a future common market: the Mercosul.

 


Convergence between state per capita incomes in Brazil
Afonso Henriques Borges Ferreira, Clélio Campolina Diniz
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

This paper presents, in its first section, the available evidence regarding the evolution of the inter-state and inter-regional distribution of income in Brazil, between the years 1970 and 1985. The main conclusion, in that a clear trend towards convergence of the state and regional per capita incomes oprevailed in the aforementioned period. In section 2, some explanations are advanced for the observed trend, whereas, in the final section, a discussion is made of the prospects that the convergence of per capita incomes has been maintained in the post- 1985 period, for which data are not available, and will continue to prevail in the future.

 


Regional integration, triangular trade and policy recommendations: the case of the Brazilian fine chemical industry
Paulo Guilherme Correa
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

This paper examines the occurrence of “triangular trade schemes” in the export of fine chemical products to Brazil from other Mercosul countries between 1989 and 1992 and suggests possible government countermeasures. It is shown that the sudden increase in Brazilian imports of fine chemicals from Uruguay corresponds to a “triangular” trade scheme between both countries and a third party and suggests the adoption of more precise origin rules than those agreed during recent Mercosul negotiations, allowing the gains from integration to accrue mainly to the member countries.

 


Price filter: a sectoral profit tracking algorithm
Fernando Cariola Travassos
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

This article resumes the author’s Ph.D. thesis main aspects and results. It presents an algorithm which enables one to measure sectorial mark-ups variations not using accounting data from firms. That instrument has the capability discounting the impact of variations in relative prices and in productivity for inputs, from the variation of final prices of sector. The testing of the algorithm revealed a clear positive correlation between mark-up variations and degree of industrial concentration, higher and more significant in the recession period (1980-1983) than in the growth one (1977-1980).

 


Brazilian inflation and the theory of games
Uwe Haneke
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

Based on the disaggregation of the private sector as an amplification of the well-known Barro & Gordon policy-game model, a coordination and/or cooperation problem of the price-setters in the private sector is identified as a possible cause for the persistence of inflation even during stabilization efforts. This kind of persistence is, at least in the short-term, independent from the willingness of the government to stop inflation. A process of self-fulfilling prophecies is started by the “wait-and-see” behavior of private sector’s price-setters, which can result in the giving up of the stabilization policy. Breaking this “wait-and-see” behavior could be one of the major problems in stabilizing economies with chronic high inflation.

 


Notes on money, debt and alternative monetary regimes for Brazil
Deepak Lal
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

This note analyzes, based on a simple model, the contribution of three authors (Rodriguez, Meltzer and Auerheimer) to the debate on inflation in Brazil and ways to overcome it. The hypothesis of adopting a currency board regime, as suggested by the three authors, and its implications for Brazil are discussed in more detail. As an alternative, it is suggested to adopt a monetary regime inspired by Hayek, in which there is competition between private banks for the issue of currency.

 


Economic transition in poland: the relevance of the latin-american experience
Rubén Berríos
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


A terapia de “shock” foi usada na Polônia ocasionando muitos problemas. É verdade que quatro anos depois a economia voltou a crescer, mas a transição à economia de mercado realizou-se com taxas altas de desemprego e crescentes desigualdades sociais. O programa de liberalização e estabilização econômica da Polônia tem muito a ver com programas similares experimentados na América Latina e poderiam ser úteis à Polônia. No curto prazo os custos são parecidos aos da experiência latino-americana. Ainda que a estabilização tenha sido obtido parcialmente, os custos sociais deslanchados foram grandes, fazendo com que a continuação de reforma econômica fosse politicamente indigesta no contexto democrático.


Short Article


A independência do banco central e a disciplina monetária: observações céticas
Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


Orthodox conventional wisdom related to monetary policy in the 1990s presents the independence of central banks as a condition for achieving durable price stability, as it did with respect to the adoption of fixed rules for monetary growth in the 1980s. The paper proceeds to a critical examination of the arguments, in which it is concluded that, besides the undesirable political implications of the proposal, the thesis is too dependent on specious and fragile concepts as the natural rate of unemployment and the allegedly inherent inflationary bias of monetary authorities as well as on a very narrow view of the role of monetary authorities.



Uma nota sobre o impacto da estabilização no comércio internacional
Carlos Henrique Rocha, Eraldo Sérgio Barbosa
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


This note presents a situation in which the government surprises rational agents by implementing an antiinflation policy in place of one that fights against recession. As a result, a pressure towards the balance of payments superavit is obtained during the impact period. That conclusion stems from the surprise of the new government policy under a “leaning against the wind” policy regime.


Document


Desenvolvimento: o mais político dos temas econômicos
Fernando Henrique Cardoso
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


Em 28 de maio de 1995 o caderno Mais! da Folha de S.Paulo publicou a conferência que o Presidente da República, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, pronunciou em Washington no início do mês, "Desenvolvimento: o mais político dos temas econômicos", antecedido de uma introdução escrita especialmente para o jornal. Pela importância do texto, publicamo-lo em nossa seção de Documentos.