Vol. 12 No. 1 (1992): Jan-Mar / 1992


Vol. 12 No. 1 (1992)

Jan-Mar / 1992
Published January 1, 1992

Article


Exportações e desequilíbrios regionais: uma análise de portfolio
Raul de Gouvea Neto
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


This paper estimates the impact of regional export structures on the risk and return of regional export portfolios. The Ma2rkowitz model is used to assess the risk and return of ex-port products structures of three Brazilian economic regions. More specifically, the paper tests the hypothesis that economic regions with highly diversified export structure will observe mo-re efficient export portfolios than those with only moderate or no portfolio diversification. In order to test this hypothesis we used the export structures of three Brazilian economic re-gions: the South, the Southeast and the Northeast. The results show that portfolio theory can provide policymakers with an alternative way of assessing export earnings instability and export promotion strategies.



Brasil e américa latina após a guerra fria
José Serra
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


The end of the Cold War and the revolutionary transformation of the Second World have provoked a pessimistic wave about the destiny of the Third World, now called “South”. The death of the State Socialism does not necessarily determines a future of misfortunes to that group of countries, including Brazil. Some “South” countries will escape from an ob-scure destiny but others will not, depending upon the competence of their elites and of their political forces in order to define and implement a national development project. This article deals with the context in which Brazil and Latin America are after the Cold War.



A opção por soberanias compartidas na américa latina: o papel da economia brasileira
José Tavares de Araújo Jr.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


The recent integration affords are been hampered by the inconsistency of macroecono-mic policies. In this paper an exercise of shared sovereignty is discussed. A special emphasis is given to exchange rate. The idea is to achieve macroeconomic stability.



Para repensar o papel do estado sem ser um neoliberal
José Luís Fiori
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


This article deals with some of the elements on the debate on the reform of the Brazilian State, which is taking place at the present time. It takes it to account the Keynesian origin of the contemporary interventionism and the trajectory of the implementation of national program of industrialization. This program was, at first, discussed in the 1930’s and later, in the 1940’s, delt theoretically by CEPAL. It deal with the bottlenecks created by the indus-trialization and argues that the crisis of the 1980 s were due to the contradictory nature of the financial crisis of the public sector. Finally, it proposes some basic ideas for the reform of the state as a condition to a new strategy of development.



Do tratado sobre probabilidade à teoria geral: o conceito de racionalidade em Keynes
Luis Catão
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


The purpose of this paper is to re-assess the role of uncertainty in Keynes’s macroeconom-ics by exploring the concepts of probability, rational belief and rational action, as they ap-pear in the Treatise on Probability. Three main claims are then made. First, there exist sub-stantial links between the conception of human rationality in the Treatise on Probability and that in the General Theory. Secondly, Keynes attributes considerable importance to the ration-al elements involved in the process of investment decision and suggests that they normally lead to macroeconomic stability. Instability is thus explained by a specific institutional shock to an economy, which is already prone to crises due to the imperfect working of certain key markets. From this perspective, the post-Keynesian literature is misleading in blaming uncer-tainty for capitalist instability and unemployment. Thirdly, following Keynes’s hints, I sug-gest that an institutionalist research programme would provide a firm basis to model invest-ment behaviour under uncertainty in a more realistic way than usually done.



Malthus e Ricardo sobre a determinação da taxa de lucro
Edward J. Amadeo, Estêvão K. X. Bastos
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


This paper examines the controversy between Malthus and Ricardo about the determi-nants of the rate of profit. It suggests a stylized model which allows a differentiation between the ‘limiting principle and the ‘regulating principle Malthus proposed. It also comments on ed quotations from texts by Malthus, Ricardo and Keynes.



Reformas políticas na américa latina na década de 80
John Williamson
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


The purpose of this note is not to describe the evolution of the debt crisis, to apportion responsibility for its occurrence or persistence, or to prescribe remedies for ending it (though these topics will be touched on incidentally), but to extract lessons from this unfortunate historical episode. I focus ou what I perceive to be the five principal lessons.



Crescimento econômico e renegociação da dívida externa
Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, Manuel Sánchez de La Cal
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


The objective of this paper is to analyze the negotiation of Brazil’s foreign debt within a strategy of economic growth. It draws a general profile of the main characteristics of Brazi-lian indebtedness, emphasizing the gross errors of economic policy made during the period 1974/89. The paper presents a fairly simple model of foreign-debt dynamics and describes the framework of debt-negotiation program aims at fighting inflation and restoring econo-mic growth.



A privatização no governo collor: triunfo do liberalismo ou colapso do estado desenvolvimentista
Ben Ross Schneider
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy


This paper surveys and evaluates the Brazilian experience of privatization. A New consensus emerges in the Collor Government, favoring trade liberalization and privatization. The im-port substitution strategy is exhausted and the dependency and structuralist ideas are in cri-sis, but this does not mean that the liberal ideas are now dominant. New market oriented strategy have rather a pragmatic character.


Comments


Robótica na Coréia do Sul
Marco Antonio Leite Brandão, Paulo Seleghim
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Tendência de queda dos preços reais de insumos agrícolas
Fernando Homem de Melo
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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A difusão do desenvolvimento: o modelo de industrialização tardia e a grande Ásia oriental
Alice H. Amsden
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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