Vol. 44 No. 4 (2024): Oct-Dez / 2024


Vol. 44 No. 4 (2024)

Oct-Dez / 2024
Published October 8, 2024

Article


Financial instability and climate change: new challenges for central banks
Luiz Henrique Bispo Santos, Eliane Cristina Araújo
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3617

The climate-induced financial instability hypothesis, developed in a context of
growing concern about the economic consequences of the environmental crisis, expresses
possible imbalances in the monetary and financial sides of the economic system promoted by
climate change. This article aims to make a theoretical analysis and an empirical investigation
of this hypothesis. To this end, it was sought: i) describe the channels through which climate
change destabilizes financial systems; ii) identify the main responses of central banks;
iii) verify the validity of this hypothesis, using the GMM method in a panel data structure
formed by a sample of 90 countries in the period from 2002 to 2020. The results suggest that in recent years, climate change has increased financial volatility, while central banks have remained
committed to conventional monetary policies.

JEL Classification: E58; Q54; G00.


Reindustrialization in the sustainable development convention
Carmem Feijó, Fernanda Feil, Fernando Amorim Teixeira
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3626

This article assumes the importance of the manufacturing industry to long-term
growth and examines Brazil’s deindustrialization process since its economic opening. The
manufacturing sector’s recovery is analyzed in light of the proposal to reindustrialize the
economy in the ongoing global climate emergency. In line with the new-developmentalist literature,
reindustrialization implies widening policy space to recover public and private investment
in productive assets, providing financial conditions compatible with long-term returns.
It assumes an active role in state intervention. In this sense, the New Brazilian Industry industrial policy should anchor long-term expectations to enhance productive investment
committed to the green transition. This approach positions industrial policy as the anchor to
build a sustainable development convention.

JEL Classification: O14; O11; F43; E44.


A study on the determinants of the real exchange rate misalignments
Francisco Eduardo Pires de Souza, Viviane Luporini
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3670

Departing from the literature that established a positive relation between exchange
rate undervaluation and economic growth, this paper explores the causes of persistent
undervaluation (or overvaluation) of the exchange rate. We first discuss the variables
that could explain persistent misalignment of the real exchange rate on a theoretical basis.
Then we present empirical evidence of the relation between those variables in selected country
groups. We proceed by employing econometric models to estimate the overvaluation or
undervaluation based on a panel dataset comprising 119 countries from 1980 to 2022. Our
findings indicate that countries with higher savings rates, government debt, and openness to trade tend to exhibit a more undervalued currency, the opposite happening to countries with
better terms of trade and larger capital inflows.

JEL Classification: F31; F41; F43.


Independence, the 1930s and developmentalism
Ivan Colangelo Salomão, Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3649

This article defends the hypothesis that Independence represented the initial and
necessary condition for the construction of a national development project that would be
consolidated after the Revolution of 1930. Despite its merits and mistakes, the developmental
political economy may be considered the only economic policy experience adopted in
Brazil whose industrial development objectives also included measures to expand citizenship
and income distribution.

JEL Classification: N16; O14.


Harrod-Domar Dilemma, Thirlwall’s Law and Green New Developmentalism
Chiara Grazini, Giulio Guarini, José Luis Oreiro
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3616

The article aims to address the ecological transition into a model that integrates
the Harrod-Domar Dilemma and the New Developmentalism according to a Green New Developmentalism
perspective. To this end, this paper focuses on the green sides of the middleincome
countries’ traps by introducing a novel concept of the ecologically sustainable output
growth rate into the new developmentalism model developed by Oreiro (2023) to identify a
balanced ecological growth path. Compensating for the price competitiveness losses produced by the exchange rate over-valuation, Ecological Structural Change and green finance
allow for reversing the process of premature de-industrialization by improving the competitiveness
of the manufacturing sector.

JEL Classification: E12; Q56; Q57; O11; O44.


“High-quality” economic development: China’s conciliation between economic growth and environmental sustainability
Gilberto Libânio, Diana Chaib
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3618

This paper aims to examine the concept of “high-quality” economic development,
as the new strategy adopted by China to reconcile economic growth and environmental
sustainability. It will be argued that it is not possible to understand the prospects for the
development of the Chinese economy without considering the institutional framework of
State action and the conduct of macroeconomic policy – which allows us to define China as
a developmental state. In addition, the main goals and achievements of China in regard to
energetic transition will be presented. In this paper, China is taken as a successful example
from which Brazil could draw lessons for its own development strategy.

JEL Classification: O1; O2; Q5.


The BNDES’ role in the Green Economy: institutional framework, disbursements and resource mobilisation (2010-2021)
Camila Franco Bartelega, Ana Rosa Ribeiro de Mendonça
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3614

This paper aimed to analyse the role of the BNDES in promoting the ‘green economy’
in Brazil over the past decade. We defend that, as a development bank, BNDES is an essential
player in encouraging investments that are low-emission, environmentally sustainable, and
climate-change resilient. The paper is organized as follows. After the introduction, section 2
delves into the role to be played by development banks in promoting environmentally sustainable,
low GHG emission economies. Section 3 analyses the BNDES’ disbursements in the green
economy between 2010 and 2021. Section 4 highlights the mobilization of BNDES resources for the green economy, including the management of environmental and climate funds, as well
as the issuance of green and sustainable bonds. Finally, concluding remarks are presented.

JEL Classification: E51; G21; Q01.


Economic complexity and elasticity ratio: a theoretical and empirical approach
André Mellini, Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3539

This paper analyzes the role of economic complexity in the ratio of Thirlwall’s
elasticities, fundamental to understanding the reason for the unequal growth of countries. To
this end, a theoretical model is used for a group of nations. Differences in growth rates
among countries are associated with different ratios of income elasticities of exports and imports.
According to econometric estimates, the country that manages to increase the economic
complexity of its export basket, the investment/GDP ratio and has a lower GDP per capita
improves the elasticities ratio and, therefore, its long-term growth. In other words, the
results are categorical in the sense of demonstrating the central role of these policies for the
country to advance in the process of structural change and move towards the production of more complex manufactured goods, because these can ensure sustainable economic growth,
that is, compatible with the equilibrium of the balance of payments.

JEL Classification: C2; C22; F14; F41; F43.


Growing by decreasing
Andrei Cechin, José Eli da Veiga
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3619

To justify the thesis under the motto “growing by decreasing,” this paper presents
three arguments. First, the evolution of ideas about tackling the environmental side effects
of economic growth went from “limits to growth” to the unifying concept of “beyondgrowth,”
with “green growth” and “degrowth” as two poles of the recent debate. Second,
there are indications of important convergences regarding policy prescriptions in any “green
strategy.” Third, some clues suggest that, despite the convergences, the main challenge is
overcoming the inertia in production-consumption systems by destabilizing the dominant
configuration and inducing a change in consumers’ preferences.

JEL Classification: O33; 038; O44; Q56; Q57; Q58.


Bridging the gap between production and ecology: a multi-regional input-output analysis of current Brazilian and Chinese productive and ecological relations
Jan Klink, Gabriel Santos Carneiro, Bruno Castro Dias da Fonseca
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3623

The arising literature on Ecological Unequal Exchange (EUE) incorporates multiple
elements of post-Keynesian strands, in particular the structuralist analysis of global economic
relations and the center-periphery divide. Nevertheless, there is still little discussion in the literature on the synergies and interconnections of the productive and ecological aspects
of the peripheral condition. This work intends to enter this debate by proposing a multi-regional
input-output (MRIO) analysis of the recent pattern of economic relations between
Brazil and China, focusing on the evolution and linkages between the productive and the
ecological aspects. The results show a rising unequal exchange of biophysical resources that
flows from Brazil to China which is tied to key sectors of the recent Chinese catching-up process.
In conclusion, it is argued that productive and ecological hierarchies entail two sides of
the same coin of the peripheral condition.

JEL Classification: C67; O53; O54; Q56.


Sustainable development in China: the pathway of decarbonizing the energy mix
Isabela de Oliveira Garcia, Roberto Alexandre Zanchetta Borghi
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3620

China is currently the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, reflecting the country’s
energy sector and its dependence on fossil fuels. However, the model of economic growth
supported by polluting energy is no longer sustainable, which leads to pressure for changes
in favor of greener energy, in a way to meet the interests of the country’s new development
strategy, in addition to ensuring energy security. In face of this framework, this article analyzes
the ongoing process of decarbonization of the Chinese energy mix, concluding that efforts
for energy transition in the country already reflect advances in renewable energy sectors,
and converge with the goals of modernizing the economy.

JEL Classification: O44; Q43; Q48.


Considerations on currency reform in Germany after World War II
Judyta przyluska-schmitt, Dorota Jegorow, Tamás Szigetvári
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3527

This article is theoretical and presents the currency reform of June 20, 1948,
which laid the basis for the reconstruction and rebirth of the West German economy after
World War II. The authors analyze the conditions related to the need to carry out the reform,
emphasizing the role and interests of the United States in this undertaking. It is widely believed that the reform gave rise to impressive economic growth, the so-called “economic miracle”
that no one could have predicted before. A closer analysis, however, shows that the initial
aim was not to pave the way for an economic miracle, but it was rather a meticulously
prepared plan of action by the American superpower to strengthen its position in the world
and limit the influence of the socialist idea. Therefore, this paper seeks to explore the hypothesis
that the currency reform in post-WWII Germany was primarily aimed at securing American
dominance and limiting Soviet influence.

JEL Classification: P16; E42; E52.