Political business cycles: a reviewa

Vol. 19 No. 2 (1999)

Apr-Jun / 1999
Published April 1, 1999
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))
PDF-Portuguese (Português (Brasil))

How to Cite

Fialho, Tânia Marta Maia. 1999. “Political Business Cycles: A Reviewa”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 19 (2):381-400. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571999-1016.

Political business cycles: a reviewa

Tânia Marta Maia Fialho
Mestre pelo Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional da Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais – CEDEPLAR/UFMG, Pampulha, Belo Horizonte – MG, Brsil. Professora do Departamento de Economia da UNIMONTES, Belo Horizonte – MG, Brasil.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 19 No. 2 (1999), Apr-Jun / 1999, Pages 381-400


In the last four decades, the relationship between economic performance and
politics has been examined by means of various theoretical and empirical approaches, suggesting
the possibility of a political business cycle in many countries. This study presents a
review of the main models of Business Cycle Theory and of the main findings reported in
the international literature. In part, the empirical evidence suggests that the political variable,
particularly the electoral variable, is an important determinant of cyclical movements in the
economy, indicating that Business Cycle Theory is consistent with the observed performance
of several modem democratic societies.

JEL Classification: D72; D78; B21; H50.

Keywords: Political budget cycles elections fiscal policy public expenditure