Abstract

The objective of this essay is to analyze the demand for M4 and the capital flows in Mexico for the period 1978-1990. The econometric analysis heavily uses the general to specific methodology, cointegration and an error correction model. The empirical evidence shows the existence of a stable demand for M4. The demand for M4 depends, in the long run, on income and interest rate. In the short run the changes in the inflation rate and the currency substitution effect are relevant factors to explain M4. The presence of currency substitution implies that the authorities must take account of the differentials in the interest rates between Mexico and the United States.

JEL Classification: E41.