Methodological influence on Brazilian deindustrialization
Users of Brazilian National Accounts often use the overestimated sectoral share
due to the financial dummy not being eliminated from sectoral GDP. This affects the level,
peak, and shape of the deindustrialization series. Changes in the National Accounts system
have also caused structural breaks in time series, making it difficult to assess the effect of
trade opening on deindustrialization. This study created series of sectoral shares in GDP
from 1947 to 2019 to circumvent the financial dummy and discontinuities in the longterm
series. The new series is more adherent to economic cycles, captures the effect of trade
opening, and contests the over-industrialization thesis, allowing a better understanding of
the deindustrialization process.
JEL Classification: E23; L16; O14.
Keywords: Structural change deindustrialization trade opening methodological changes financial dummy