Sectoral deindustrialization and long-run stagnation of Brazilian manufacturing

Vol. 43 No. 2 (2023)

Apr-Jun / 2023
Published May 10, 2023

How to Cite

Morceiro, Paulo César, and Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto. 2023. “Sectoral Deindustrialization and Long-Run Stagnation of Brazilian Manufacturing”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 43 (2):418-41.

Sectoral deindustrialization and long-run stagnation of Brazilian manufacturing

Paulo César Morceiro
Post-doctoral Fellow of DST/NRF South African Chair in Industrial Development, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa. Associated researcher at NEREUS/USP.
Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto
Professor at University of Sao Paulo (FEA-USP), Brasil.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 43 No. 2 (2023), Apr-Jun / 2023, Pages 418-441


In Brazil and elsewhere in the world, diagnoses of deindustrialization are
concentrated in aggregate manufacturing, so policies can be ineffective if deindustrialization
has a sector-specific component. This study quantifies and analyses deindustrialization
for the individualised manufacturing sub-sectors. To do this, unpublished series of the
manufacturing sub-sectors’ share in the Brazilian GDP from 1970 to 2016 were created,
based on official IBGE data. The results show that the manufacturing sub-sectors have deindustrialised at different intensities and periods of aggregate manufacturing, and a subsectoral
approach reveals traces ignored by the literature on the quality of deindustrialization.
We conclude that the Brazilian deindustrialization is normal (and expected) for the labourintensive
manufacturing sub-sectors, but premature (and undesirable) for the technologyintensive
sub-sectors. Therefore, Brazilian deindustrialization has negative consequences for
the country’s future scientific and technological development.

JEL Classification: O14; L6; L16.

Keywords: Sectoral deindustrialization industrial development sectoral heterogeneity structural change