Exchange Rate Behavior in the BRICS

Vol. 44 No. 1 (2024)

Jan-Mar / 2024
Published December 22, 2023
PDF-English
PDF-English

How to Cite

Vieira, Flavio Vilela, and Cleomar Gomes da Silva. 2023. “Exchange Rate Behavior in the BRICS”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 44 (1):125-44. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572024-3451.

Exchange Rate Behavior in the BRICS

Flavio Vilela Vieira
Federal University of Uberlândia (IERI-UFU), Uberlândia/MG, Brazil.
Cleomar Gomes da Silva
Federal University of Uberlândia (IERI-UFU), Uberlândia/MG, Brazil.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 44 No. 1 (2024), Jan-Mar / 2024, Pages 125-144

Abstract

This article aims to investigate the behavior of exchange rate in the BRICS
countries, with an emphasis on exchange rate passthrough and exchange rate determination
empirical models. By applying the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach Methodology, from
January 2005 to December 2019. Our main results show that: i) there is a long run
cointegration among the variables analyzed for all estimated models; ii) there is a very slow
speed of adjustment towards the long run equilibrium; iii) there is evidence of exchange
rate passthrough to inflation mainly in the long run, but not as strong as before; iv) there
is no evidence of exchange rate overshooting; v) international reserve accumulation can be
considered a partial explanation for the evidence of no exchange rate overshooting.

JEL Classification: C22; F14; F17.


Keywords: Exchange rate inflation overshooting passthrough ARDL cointegration